NBA 10/27/16

Sacramento +8.5 (3u) W

I was high on the Kings coming into this season and they looked good in their season opener in Phoenix last night, upsetting the Suns by 19. They now have a back to back and come back to Sacramento for not only their home opener but also their stadium opener. The Spurs looked good in Oracle on Tuesday, where they thoroughly exposed Golden State's lack of size in their front court, but now face a much more talented pair of big men in Cousins and Koufos. Boogie will have no problems dominating the Aldridge/Gasol combo on both ends of the court and Lawson should have a rebound game and lead the team on the court as he's the only true point guard on the roster. The Spurs may have the better starting 5 and deeper bench but I like this Sacramento team to compete and keep it within single digits of the Spurs tonight. 

NBA 10/26/16

Charlotte -2 (2u) W

The Hornets ended last season on a disappointing note, failing to win another game after taking a 3-2 lead over Miami. They lost some key contributors in the offseason but face a very young Bucks team struggling to figure out their rotation with Middleton injured, Giannis as the primary ball handler, and Snell not going through a single practice with the team before the home opener. They're missing too much talent to keep it close with the Hornets and Kemba should lead Charlotte to a win tonight in Milwaukee. 

Brooklyn +12 (2u) W

The Celtics enter the season with high expectations after a 1st round exit and acquiring Horford in the offseason. They'll be starting their home opener without Olynyk or Smart which hurts their depth quite a bit, and Rozier will be taking over ball handling duties for the second unit which could take a few weeks to have the offense running smoothly. On the other hand, Linsanity returns to New York where he'll finally have the opportunity to open the season as a team's starting PG, and he'll be tested early on to keep up against Isaiah Thomas. I'm not buying that this Celtics team will have everything figured out in game 1 to blow out the Nets by double digits. 

LA Lakers +6 (2u) W

This one should be an absolute shootout tonight in D'Antoni's return to Staples Center as a head coach. The Lakers' rising backcourt of Russell and Clarkson should continue to improve throughout the season and veterans like Deng and Calderon are great acquisitions to help the younger players grow their games. With so many new pieces for LA, Beverley injured, Harden as the primary ball handler, and new head coaches for both teams, there's no way either side will have their rotations set for tonight. I'm grabbing the points here because I think this young and inspired Lakers team can keep up with a veteran Houston starting 5 and give them a run for their money in their home opener tonight.

NBA 10/25/16

San Antonio +8.5 (2u) W

Golden State is likely going to be a fade target for me all year against the spread, especially early on in the season while they figure out their rotations and chemistry. With all of the hype the Dubs are receiving, the public will slam them regardless of the spread Vegas throws out, creating additional value in taking the underdog tonight. San Antonio will be without key perimeter defender in Green who was top 10 in the league in defensive rating last season, but their new look offense after the departure of Timmy should keep them in the game tonight. Kawhi is still the reigning DPOY and a legitimate MVP candidate if OKC and Houston aren't a top 4 team in the West, and his 33rd highest usage rate of 25.8% should be noticeably higher this season. On the other hand, the Warriors losing Bogut/Ezeli is a bigger deal than people realize, as Bogut's NBA-leading DRPM and Ezeli's solid defense will be replaced by the likes of Zaza, Varejao and Javale. San Antonio has the deeper and more talented bench too, where they can make up some of the scoring deficit they might face from the starting 5. I'm taking the points and rolling with the Spurs who could exploit a talented Golden State squad that may need a few weeks to be firing on all cylinders.

 

Futures Picks

Warriors under 67.5 wins (5u)

Chemistry: Although KD has some experience playing with Steph/Klay/Dray on the Olympics/All-Star squad, there will likely still be some growing pains as he adjusts to a fairly different style of offense from OKC a la 2010 Miami Big 3. There's only one ball to go around a team full of talented players, and to me, the Warriors are likely going to be a fade target against the spread early on in the season as they build chemistry while the lines are inflated due to the massive amounts of hype surrounding them.

Depth: Their lack of bench depth, especially on the defensive end, can't be overlooked. I don't think many fans realize how big of a factor the loss of Bogut will have on this team's defensive rotation. Fun fact: Bogut had the highest Defensive RPM in the league last season. They're now replacing Bogut's 21 MPG with Zaza who's comparable to Ezeli, but are left with Varejao, Javale(yikes) and rookie Jones to eat up the rest of the minutes. I think we may all soon realize that this is a bigger issue than it would seem on paper as the season goes.

Fatigue: Let's face it, the Warriors were gassed by the end of their playoff run and it was mainly because they didn't take days off while openly chasing the Bulls' record. Everyone questioned Kerr and his decision to openly chase the record at the expense of giving their tired team, who played an additional two months of playoffs in the previous season as well, some much needed rest. The Dubs learned that lesson the hard way and should be resting most of their key players if/when they clinch the top seed, as well as sporadically throughout the season.

Regular Season MVP: Westbrook +400 (5u) / Harden +1600 (5u)

As long as OKC lands a top 4 seed in the West, this is his award to lose. We should see his already high usage rate (6th in NBA) skyrocket with the departure of KD (9th in NBA). Harden has good value at +1600 with him taking over ball handling duties in Houston to start the season. No value on taking Steph/KD as they'll take votes away from each other, and LeBron won't be used nearly as much as the Cavs prepare for another playoff run. 

2016-17 NBA Champions: Cleveland Cavaliers +300 (5u)

Don't get me wrong, I think the Warriors are the most talented team in the league by a good margin, but there's not enough value taking a team to go all the way as favorites vs the field before the season even begins. I think Cleveland has an easier path to the Finals than the Warriors, which also creates a hedging opportunity for whoever they face