NBA 11/15/16

Minnesota -1 (3u) L

Lavine should be back in the lineup tonight from a sore knee to take on a solid Hornets team, who were one of four teams that ranked top 10 in both offensive and defensive ratings last season. Wiggins has been on fire for the past week, setting career highs in scoring twice while averaging 33.5 PPG and earning 2 blowout wins in the last 3 games. Charlotte will have their hands full against an explosive Wolves offense ranked 2nd in the NBA, but they feature a top 3 defense to try and slow down Wiggins tonight. I'm taking the home team with a ton of potential to continue getting better and hand Charlotte their 3rd consecutive loss.  

NBA 11/10/16

Denver +6.5 (3u) L

Taking the Nuggets in a letdown spot for Golden State, who dismantled a severely injured Mavs team last night and travel a few states over for a back to back game. This Denver team leads the league in REB and REB% with their frontcourt duo in Jokic and Nurkic while Golden State ranks bottom 10 in both categories, which should create plenty of second chance opportunities for Denver. The Nuggets continue to be underrated by the public, going 5-2 ATS with one missed cover by half a point in OT, while the Warriors continue to receive a tremendous amount of public support regardless of their 3-5 ATS record. Barton is still injured but Mudiay has stepped up in the last two games and has Denver's offense running smoothly through him. One of Golden State's nine losses came in Denver last season, and I think the Nuggets could expose their matchup advantages to steal a game at home from the Warriors. 

NBA 11/9/16

Washington -1 (3u) W

The Wizards may be 1-5 but aren't as bad as their record may suggest, as they have never trailed by 1 point entering the 4th quarter in all 5 of their losses this season. They severely lack bench depth, which causes the starters to play 35+ minutes and become exhausted in the final minutes of the game. Horford has yet to clear concussion protocol and Boston's defense is consequently struggling mightily, as their defense is allowing 111.8 PPG (28th in NBA). This should be great matchup between two talented young teams, and the Wizards should expose a mistake-prone Celtics team to earn a win at home tonight. 

Toronto +3 (3u) W

Valanciunas is a game time decision but looks like he has a decent shot to suit up tonight in a big matchup against OKC. DeRozan has been on fire for the first two weeks of the season but faces a tough defensive team ranked top 5 in defensive efficiency. Westbrook is proving himself to be a MVP candidate with his near triple-doubles on any given day, but needs the rest of the team to step up and contribute across the board for the team to continue their hot start. I'll take the points with the road dogs in what should be a hard fought game. 

Detroit -4 (2u) L

Detroit should come out with some fire today after getting stomped at Staples, facing a 30 point deficit by halftime and unable to gain any ground in the second half. Suns are playing the 2nd game of a back to back and are likely without Chandler again, who missed last night's game due to personal reasons. Detroit's frontcourt and backcourt should both have a much easier time scoring tonight with so many young players on the Suns who are prone to making mistakes. This is a good personnel matchup for the Pistons and a bounce back spot after a day of rest to continue their road trip.

LA Clippers -10 (2u) W

As mentioned above, the Clippers dominated the Pistons in embarrassing fashion at home, with 5 of their 6 wins coming by double digits. The one win that wasn't a blowout was an 8 point victory against Portland in their season opener, and they look to continue their scorching hot start tonight against a solid Blazers team. The Clippers are the best defensive team in the league, playing solid defense both on-ball and perimeter, as well as in the paint with Blake and DJ. Portland is playing a road/road back to back where Dame came through with some clutch shots but their backcourt duo each played 37 minutes to pull out a close win. This Clippers defense should jump all over a tired Portland team and cruise to a double digit win at home tonight. 

Dallas +16 (2u) L

The long-awaited revenge game takes place in Oracle tonight as Barnes and Bogut make their first appearance after leaving the Warriors following their finals loss. Barnes has looked like a completely different player already this season with 22.3 PPG, more than double of his career scoring average. More impressively, he's able to do this shooting at a 50.8% clip as the first scoring option. He should be extremely motivated to come to Oracle and put on a show against his former teammates, who went with the front office behind his back to put on a recruitment pitch to KD. Bogut should also show why he led the league in DRPM last year by providing elite defense in the paint and utilizing his skills as a passer as well. Dallas is way too talented to be a 2-5 team, they're lacking chemistry but should continue to improve throughout the season as they figure out their rotations. 

NBA 11/7/16

Philadelphia +6.5 (4u)

Utah begins its 5 game road trip with a road/road back to back and take on the winless Sixers in Philly. Embiid is having a monster start to the season considering his minutes restriction and his ability to stretch the floor should prove to be important against Utah's talented frontcourt duo. Philly almost pulled off a massive upset against Cleveland on Saturday, but fell short due to some controversial calls in the final minute. This is a much improved Sixers team than last year and should be picking up some wins as their rotations get settled and their younger players gain some valuable experience. 

Miami +6 (3u)

Waiters returns to OKC for his revenge game after spending the last season with the Thunder. OKC relies on a lot of production from its big men, but Whiteside has had a hot start with five double-doubles to start the season and is a matchup nightmare for Adams and Kanter. His elite defense in the paint should force the Thunder to take more outside shots, which OKC is severely lacking. With Richardson coming back from his knee injury and helping out on the defensive end, and Tyler Johnson playing well with the second string and making his 6MOY case, I like this Miami team to keep it close in OKC tonight. 

Washington -1.5 (3u)

Harden has been putting up MVP caliber stats as the primary ball handler for Houston and needs to keep it up tonight during a tough stretch of road games. The Rockets are leading the NBA in 3pt attempts with a whopping 35.3 shots per game, but face a pair of solid perimeter defenders in Wall and Beal. Wall should be rested and good to go after a DNP-Rest against Orlando for precautionary measures after his knee procedures. Both teams feature a weak bench that has been exposed early and often this season, which should be the x-factor in tonight's matchup.

Orlando +7 (2u)

The Magic are coming off of 3 straight wins after starting 0-3 to face a Chicago team coming off of 3 straight losses after starting 3-0. Everyone wondered what the Bulls' identity and rotations were going to look like and although they've had a hot start, it's clear they're going need a lot of time to get settled in with their entirely new look roster. Orlando is extremely young but has a ton of talent and depth, and they could steal one in Chicago tonight. 

NBA 11/4/16

Utah +4 (4u) L

The Jazz upset the Spurs in San Antonio on Tuesday and face off again just 3 days later in Utah. George Hill is having his best start to a season of his career, leading Utah to a win in a revenge game against the team that traded him for Kawhi on his draft day. He gets another opportunity to keep his hot streak going against a Spurs team thin on guards with Parker ruled out for tonight's matchup due to a knee injury. Utah's frontcourt proved to be a tough matchup for Aldridge, with Gobert defending the rim and Favors getting healthier. This should be another hard fought, low scoring game for two good defensive teams and I'll take Hill and the Jazz to control the pace of the game and make less mistakes than the Spurs with Mills running the point. 

Miami +7 (2u) L

Miami and Toronto face off in a rematch of the Eastern Conference semifinals series which went to 7 games last season. The Heat have completely changed their look without Wade, Johnson, and Deng, while the Raptors return mostly the same roster from the playoffs. Derozan has had a torrid start to the season but Miami has a good backcourt as well with Dragic/Johnson/Waiters. Carroll hasn't looked completely healthy coming off of his injury, but the real matchup is at the 5 with Whiteside and Valanciunas picking up where they left off from last season. With teams these days favoring the small ball, these two teams still rely on their big men to not only protect the paint but to contribute plenty on the offensive end as well. Toronto is 27th in the league in 3pt% but 6th in FG%, meaning they thrive on attacking the rim. They more than likely won't have the same amount of success scoring inside the perimeter with Whiteside guarding the paint. This is too many points to lay against two teams very familiar with each other, so I'm grabbing the points with the road dog tonight. 

Phoenix +3 (2u) W

Late add. Bledsoe and the Suns really impressed in their matchup against Portland, spreading the ball around and playing some good team ball. Pelicans are a one man team with Davis torching other teams but isn't getting enough support from everyone else, especially their weak and thin bench. Phoenix has a good second unit that could prove to be the difference in tonight's matchup.

NBA 11/3/16

Denver +3.5 (3u) W

The Nuggets have lost back to back games against two playoff caliber teams in Portland and Toronto, losing by one possession each after holding a 4th quarter lead. Although they're thin at the 2 with Barton and Harris inactive for tonight, Arthur has been cleared to make his season debut and should help with spacing the floor for the guards to operate. The public has been all over this young but extremely talented Wolves team to take the next step with Thibs at the helm but weren't able to close out their first two games before blowing out a severely depleted Memphis team on Tuesday. Although Dunn has looked good, this team is likely going to need at least a few weeks to settle in and get in rhythm with a rookie running the offense without Rubio in the starting lineup. The Nuggets are a bad matchup for Minnesota with their starting lineup featuring two solid centers in Jokic and Nurkic and should be a tough test with the rim protection they provide. Denver needs to be locked in for all 48 minutes and play to win instead of playing not to lose if they want to upset a hungry Wolves team on the road. 

NBA 11/2/16

Phoenix +3 (3u) W

This might be a winless Phoenix team but they've played some good teams so far this season. They had a lead at one point in the 4th quarter against the Warriors where they lost by 2 possessions and took OKC to overtime on the road. Booker apparently looked good during shootaround and should play tonight, who along with Knight, have a tall task to slow down the Portland backcourt duo who were tested last night against the splash brothers. The Blazers are coming off of a back to back where they got blown out by Golden State and come to Phoenix in a letdown spot to start their road trip. This may be a inexperienced Phoenix squad that's been prone to making mental mistakes and not taking care of the ball, but the young talent is there and I like them to upset Portland to grab their first win of the season tonight. 

Brooklyn +4 (2u) W

This is already my 3rd time backing Brooklyn this season, with the Nets winning their first three games against the spread before getting manhandled against Chicago. Their defense has always been a liability but I think they'll be making improvements quickly on both sides of the court as they figure out their rotations with a new point guard in charge. Brooklyn has been launching an absurd number of 3's, leading the league in 3's attempted, but not hitting them at a high clip. They should fare a little better tonight where Detroit does well in rim protection but not as well at defending the perimeter. The Nets are currently top 3 in the league in offensive rebounds while being one of the fastest paced teams in the league, which should give them plenty of opportunities to score second chance baskets and keep this game close at home. 

 

NBA 11/1/16

Portland +5 (3u) L

As I predicted in my futures picks, the Warriors continue to be overvalued by the public, failing to cover the spread in all 3 of their games so far. That trend could very well continue tonight in Portland, where the Blazers handed the Warriors their biggest loss of the season last year by a significant margin. This is a potent backcourt with Dame averaging a whopping 33.9 points per game against the Warriors in 9 games last season. Steph is usually hidden on defense a little by having Klay as an elite perimeter defender but McCollum has been solid and Dame has been getting it done in the paint as well. Dame has 16 points per game in the paint this season, surprisingly good for 3rd in the NBA, and this spells trouble for a Warriors squad missing Bogut and Ezeli to defend the rim. Zaza doesn't have nearly as much mobility of either of those big men when Portland runs the weak side fade screens and Dame should go off tonight at the Moda Center.

Utah +10 (3u) W

The Jazz haven't had a great start to the season and head to San Antonio to face a hot Spurs team on the road. Gobert just signed a big extension today and should be motivated to prove his worth against a tough matchup in Aldridge, where Rudy has been able to hold him to 26 for 62 (42%) shooting. Diaw is out due to a leg injury but Favors looks like he's good to start after his knee injury, and his minutes limitation should be lifted or increased. Kawhi is having a monster start to the season but having Favors back should definitely help slow him down and protect the paint. There's value in grabbing double digit points in what should be a low scoring game between 2 of the 4 slowest paced teams in the league last season.